Pakistan is a country that goes back and forth between military rule and democratically elected governments. Pakistan has been unable to achieve long-term peace and prosperity because of fighting between provinces and a long-running dispute.
No-confidence votes have forced Pakistan’s populist Prime Minister Imran Khan out of the job, so he can’t stay in office. Shahbaz Sharif, the younger brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, is next to him.
None of the Pakistani prime ministers has ever been in office for a full five years at the same time.
There was a split in Imran Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf. This forced the opposition to do something. Khan’s problems with the defense department were going to get worse as
he tried to prove himself even more to Pakistani youth, military veterans,
and even young army members who remember Khan as the cricket legend who led Pakistan to World Cup victory in 1992. Khan, the country’s most important group of people, its young people, have been mesmerized by the old pop star.
Imran Khan said that his victory in 2018 with help from the military was a legitimate vote. His money problems got even worse because of things like the Covid 19 flu and world inflation.
His budget and current-account deficits were getting bigger, and the value of the Pakistani rupee was going down against the US dollar.
But as his relationship with the military deteriorated, Khan fought to stay in power and stay in charge. When he said that his official representative in Washington, DC, told him that a high-ranking State Department official was a security risk, he made things even more complicated for himself.
This “memo,” which he gave to the public without knowing its whole story, was his proof that Islamists were planning to kill him.
Worse, the relationship with the United States got worse. Outcry even scared the army, which made the army chief say how important Pakistan’s relationship with the United States was.
There is a common cliche in Pakistan that says “we are both on the same site.” The army sometimes plays along with this prank. They are reading different books, even though they are on the same page. Khan’s fate was sealed when he broke up with Bajwa.
They had been disagreeing on a lot of different things. Bajwa thought that trade with India, as well as other regional integration, was important to productivity growth. Khan decided to break off all ties with India to please the populist Islamists.
In the middle of this political stalemate, Bajwa decided to speak out against the prime minister instead of keeping his head down in front of everyone
else and telling journalists and other people about his concerns privately.
Bajwa said that Khan’s Trump-style disregard for facts and quick diplomacy had angered friends and patrons like Saudi Arabia and China.
As soon as Joe Biden arrived at the White House, Khan’s supporters kept talking about how long it had been since he had talked to Biden.
In this case, the opponents took the game to parliament by introducing a motion of no confidence with the help of fastbreak factions of Khan’s alliance. Khan tried to divert attention by making an illegal move to prorogue parliament.
The Supreme Court ruled against Khan’s attempt to stay in power. Khan lost a vote of confidence in the parliament, but he didn’t show up.
Most of the people who voted for him had to leave. There could be quick by-elections that the new government could use to capitalize on its current course and strengthen its grip on power. This transition could allow the new government to do this.
In public protests, Khan now shows that he has power. But even without the powerful military’s institutional support, he still faces problems. A new Ancien Regime is trying to get the country out of its financial and political mess, and it’s not going to be easy for him to do it.
Khan will be taking a big risk if he gets young people in cities and the upper classes angry at the military and makes people nervous on the streets.
If the financial system continues to get worse and there is more social and political unrest, more military involvement may be needed.
People in Pakistan don’t want this because they’ve had a military rule in the past. Most of them and the most intelligent top generals don’t want this.
A better idea would be to work together to rebuild the economy, re-energize the IMF, and re-energize foreign investment,
all at the same time as a fierce election campaign in which Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif can show off his achievements
and Imran Khan can make the case for why he should stay in office. He is the Prime Minister of Punjab.
Nawaz Sharif has a public image of getting things done. He will be able to do things on a bigger scale now. His first speech in the national assembly sent the right message of unity, not split, and started bringing in provinces that had less power, which was good for the country as a whole.
During this time, the people of Pakistan will be looking to the military, which has a new chief of staff, to make sure that free and fair elections are held without putting their fingers on how people feel.